作者 ｜
高月霞(經建會人力規劃處專員、東吳大學經濟學研究所)、陳仕偉(東吳大學經濟學研究所碩士)
摘要 ｜
婦女的勞動參與行為是勞動經濟學的重要研究課題。本文利用時間數列資料的特性，建立向量自我迴歸模型，再運用 Granger因果關係的概念，探討臺灣婦女勞動參與、婚姻、生育行為和勞動市場狀況等相關變數的因果關係。整體而言，婦女勞參率、嬰兒出生率和離婚率三個變數間，彼此為回饋關係，婦女勞參率提高使嬰兒出生率下降，而嬰兒出生率的下降亦使婦女勞參率上升;再者婦女勞參率與離婚率為正向回饋關係;而嬰兒出生率與離婚率為負向回饋關係;顯示社會現象層層相扣緊密相連。
關鍵字 ｜
勞動力參與率、時間數列分析、向量自我迴歸模型、因果關係、回饋關係
Title ｜
THE ANALYSIS OF CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP ON TAIWAN FEMALE LABOR PARTICIPATION BEHAVIOR
Author ｜
Yueh-shi Kao (Sepecialist in Council for Economic Planning and Development and Associate Professor of Department of Economics, Soochow University)、Shyh-wei Chen(Department of Economics, Soochow University)
Abstract ｜
Female labor force participation behavior has been an interesting and important research topic in labor economics. In the time series analysis, Granger causality is adapted to vector autoregression models to analyze the causal relationships among variables. This paper analyzes the relationships among female labor force participation rates, divorce rates, birth rates, and other labor market indicators. The results indicate that female labor force participation rates have negative feedback relationships with birth rates, and positive feedback relationships with divorce rates. Between birth rates and divorce rates, there exists negative feedback relationship.
Keywords ｜
labor force participation rate、time series analysis、vector autoregression model、causality、feedback